Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.082278 0.093906 0.106538 0.121274 0.137986 0.156345 0.178037
2026-01-11 0.063914 0.078859 0.096339 0.118268 0.145026 0.176596 0.216659
2026-01-18 0.051411 0.068172 0.089155 0.117303 0.154027 0.200270 0.262888
2026-01-25 0.039489 0.056121 0.078350 0.110139 0.154347 0.213562 0.298826
2026-02-01 0.030212 0.045911 0.068253 0.102232 0.152463 0.223828 0.332770
2026-02-08 0.023982 0.038863 0.061356 0.097636 0.154477 0.239876 0.377649
2026-02-15 0.019120 0.032966 0.055144 0.092993 0.155684 0.255028 0.423950
2026-02-22 0.016324 0.029850 0.052739 0.093935 0.165840 0.285623 0.499574
2026-03-01 0.013283 0.025727 0.047944 0.090057 0.167389 0.302596 0.555840
2026-03-08 0.010998 0.022513 0.044154 0.087262 0.170350 0.322463 0.620513
2026-03-15 0.009178 0.019817 0.040824 0.084712 0.173323 0.342832 0.689560
2026-03-22 0.008103 0.018401 0.039705 0.086255 0.184424 0.380101 0.796762
2026-03-29 0.006906 0.016521 0.037392 0.085150 0.190470 0.409431 0.895205
2026-04-05 0.006022 0.015151 0.035911 0.085572 0.199900 0.447385 1.018446
2026-04-12 0.005333 0.014090 0.034918 0.086927 0.211716 0.492524 1.165343
2026-04-19 0.004443 0.012331 0.031961 0.083141 0.211144 0.510574 1.255519
2026-04-26 0.003652 0.010642 0.028828 0.078301 0.207174 0.520307 1.328511
2026-05-03 0.003096 0.009456 0.026725 0.075655 0.208170 0.542032 1.434445
2026-05-10 0.002619 0.008374 0.024671 0.072719 0.207884 0.560644 1.536217
2026-05-17 0.002365 0.007896 0.024183 0.074015 0.219234 0.610839 1.728527
2026-05-24 0.002019 0.007043 0.022441 0.071363 0.219130 0.631031 1.844748
2026-05-31 0.001747 0.006358 0.021049 0.069461 0.220839 0.656508 1.980296
2026-06-07 0.001516 0.005756 0.019780 0.067672 0.222555 0.682375 2.121799